Pirates are Political

The Whole LSE Thing

2010-01-16T09:01:00.002Z

It's been busy recently but I couldn't let the recent news that a 'teacher' at UCL is a member of Hizb ut-Tahrir. It sounds more dramatic to say teacher but I think he's actually a PhD student rather than a full member of staff. Still, it does raise some questions about whether or not the University should be bothered? After all, he's not researching weapons technology or dual use items, he's researching politics. Far more important is his involvement with the Islamic Society at UCL which seems to follow the classic HT pattern; Jummah Khutbah (the "sermon" on a Friday) to get their political message out to a wide audience, social events (meals and football etc) to identify potential recruits, "brothers circles" to further indoctrinate and finally they will be having individual meetings with those people who they want to recruit as activists.

What is interesting is that this sort of activity isn't the work of him alone, he will have had support, usually from people on the Islamic Society. Given the somewhat heterodox views of HT it seems to me that the fact he was giving the prayers "every other week" the I-Soc is run by HT. Of course they would deny this and to avoid criticism they will allow two or three non-Hizbis on the committee to provide the illusion of independence.

Of course HT are legal and haven't been caught breaking any laws. That said it would be interesting to ask them about the "covenant of security" both now and during the invasion of Iraq...

Gosh...

2008-11-05T06:54:00.001Z

They've only gone and elected a black president. Maybe the USA isn't a total disaster after all...

Georgia

2008-08-13T16:38:00.001+01:00

It's been a long time since I posted and a lot has been going on with Russia and Georgia. Perhaps the greatest threat from the Iraq-Afghanistan invasions is coming to the fore with the generally limp wrist response from the West to Russian actions.

It isn't that the West didn't pour troops into Georgia at the drop of a hat, after all, it isn't possible to get militarily involved in every satellites wars. Yet, it was known amongst the whole world, that if it had got to that point the West was toothless. American and British forces are stretched to the point where further expeditionary adventures of any size are simply not possible. Other European states might have the military capability but not the political will to take any potential losses.

Russia can now sit back and call the shots in a country that threatened to leave its orbit. Although there is a pro-western government in power it is up to the Russians whether that government stays or goes. Russia also has the power to simply decide to grant a Kosovo style autonomy to the regions.

There are two ways of looking at this; either that the West's failure to admit Georgia into NATO established it's fate, or, that the NATO saved itself getting involved in an essentially local problem. Sensible policy would seem to be to keep supporting pro-western democratic movements and to then protect those that join the 'fold' as it were. A cooling of relations between Russia and the West can be considered against the greater reach and influence of more allies around Russia itself. A managed competition now would be a good deal more stable than a free for all later on when Russia is fully re-established as an independent global force.

5 Reasons Canada (or at least Toronto...) Rocks

2008-06-01T01:25:00.001+01:00

Being able to walk around with Naima without having people stare.
Lack of CCTV everywhere.
The lack of "The Only People Who Want Rights Are Terrorists and Kiddy Fiddlers" government.
Breakfast - they really know how to do breakfast.
It's genuinely liberal - at least compared to the UK.
You can practically taste the opportunity...

P.S.

I know that it has it's share of racism, idiots and paranoia inducing politicians but it's still better than the UK.

Don't Invade Ir..Darfur?

2008-05-21T15:03:00.001+01:00

In a pretty weird opinion article on the BBC Alex de Waal makes it clear that he doesn't think that the Peacekeeping mission in Sudan has a role beyond patrolling DP camps.

It's this breed of thinking within security studies that gives it a bad name. The insistence that the solution is political and therefore cannot have a significant military component (if it all) is flawed for two reasons. Firstly, it's based on the premise that military and political solutions cannot co-exist, which is in turn based on the idea that the awfulness of war robs it of any utility. To make peace the end in itself is as distorted as making war the end in itself.

The example of Chamberlain and appeasement may be hackneyed but it still holds relevance here. Peace and security sometimes require nations to go to war to defend their interests. The goal of peace in itself hampered the ability to choose an appropriate policy response. The issue doesn't even need to be looked at it in terms of a clash of values per se. Seen in terms of nations protecting their own interests it would still have made sense to prevent Hitler from invading other countries. For liberal countries it is a matter of self interest for them to oppose states with extreme views of one side or another. This kind of self interest leads to benefits in the long term. The cold war would have been very different indeed had the goal been peace. Of course the self interest itself needs to been through the objectives of value-based policy.

Back to Darfur, it is in the interests of the west to exert some serious influence there, halting the war. For the west to pick a side and back a winner could lead to longer lasting peace and a pro-Western government in the region. Where the west has a direct influence in picking the winner they also have a direct influence in the following government. Where they fail to engage then they are left to skulk around in awkward embarrassment such as Rwanda today. This means that Kagame can pretty much run elections how he likes and no one can stop him. Kagame 1, People of Rwanda - 2.

Software

2008-05-10T20:39:00.003+01:00

Geekery again as I unleash my weekend project on the general public. A quick .NET taskbar thing that allows the user to search Google, Live and Wikipedia quickly. No bells and whistles it requires .NET and isn't in any way warrantied. No responsibility will be accepted if anyone uses it and it melts their face...

http://code.google.com/p/xphometoolkit/

Don't ever annoy the boss...

2008-05-08T18:51:00.001+01:00

According to the BBC there is to be a new database for companies to carry out background checks on potential employees. If you're accused but then not convicted of a crime it can listed on the database and every subscriber to the service will know about it. The potential for abuse is mind boggling as all it takes is one cross boss and you're stuffed for life. You can appeal but how can you prove that an accusation was unfounded beyond the fact that you were never convicted?

Not only that but apparently the protection will be an 'encrypted password' system. Hotmail, phpBB and GMail are all protected by an 'encrypted password' system. Given the wealth of data on the database it isn't likely to be long before someone socially engineers their way to a password.

The moral to the story? It's more than references at stake when you're planning an exit strategy from a rubbish workplace.

Quilliam Policy Document

2008-04-28T17:35:00.000+01:00

They've posted the policy document on the Quilliam website and it is an interesting read overall. The first point in the document mentions rehabilitation centres. In the main this is an excellent idea as they serve to address the underlying issue (in intellectual terms) and not just remove people from society. I'm not sure how they foresee it being implemented as they quite rightly establish that government must stand well clear, yet they also say that the periods spent in there must be "substantial". How do you get a dedicated Islamist to attend a centre for a substantial period of time without some form of court intervention?

If they used the centres as part of a re-radicalisation plan - in much the same way as a rehabilitation for drug users - then you might have a better response. Ideally prisons themselves would also be home to such resources, if not a bona fide centre, to help counter the radicalisation there.

I'm not going to go through the whole document because it's short and sweet. I think the biggest problem with the Quilliam Foundation so far is the huge disconnect between their stances and the views of a lot of the 'moderates' in the community. Not only that but some of the 'moderates' whilst not being ideal are acting as a bulwark against the more hardline organisers. I'm also pleased to see they've not mentioned a ban on hardline groups. It may seem tempting but actually a ban just gives kudos to fringe groups and rallies others around them in the name of free speech.

Quilliam Launch

2008-04-23T10:54:00.002+01:00

Well it isn't exactly breaking news but I did go to the Quilliam launch and it was extremely thought provoking. The speakers were varied to put it mildy, ranging from Gemima Khan to the head of the Naqshabandi order in Jerusalem, with a lot in between. There were non-Muslims speaking at the event as well including a speech by a survivor of the July 7th bomb attacks. It was just the right level of uncomfortable, because it was a useful reminder that this isn't some academic exercise in discourse, but looking at a serious problem that gets people killed. There were a few key points that came out of the launch event that were pertinent to everyone both in the Muslim community and those outside of it trying to understand. The first was that "Islamism" is a significant problem and we shouldn't ignore it. Islamism is more than just those groups that go out of their way to be extreme but all of those groups that utilise the Islamist paradigm without overtly aiming for Islamist objectives. These are groups that buy into the "ideology" concept and promote Muslims as "others" in the community.

The second was that the Islamist view of history is massively distorted. They tend to spin the illusion that there was a singular correct form of Islamic government and that there was a single state for all Muslims. This view airbrushes out the Muslims in China, Africa, Spain, Indonesia, Iran and their contributions. When it comes to Andalucia they are happy to proclaim that the "Islamic State" gave tolerance and learning etc etc. What they fail to mention is that according to their own rules the state in Andalucia was a "rebel" state and according to their rules should have been invaded!

There were lots and lots of other really good points that came out of the launch and there are too many to list here really. The thrust of the whole event though can be summed as this; that there is a nascent "British Islam" that will emerge in the coming years but that it will take a lot of effort and isn't going to be without challenges.

In general the Foundation seems to be a pretty good idea. Certainly long over due and it is excellent to see community leaders getting involved. The only thing that remains to be seen is how they propose to reach "Joe Muslim" in Bradford and stopping him getting radicalised. For that we'll have to wait for the policy document which I've not got a hold of yet...

Some real news...

2008-04-22T09:16:00.002+01:00

Some real news today. I've managed to get a seat at the launch of the Quilliam Foundation today. Still not sure of what to make of them so today will hopefully be a chance to find out more...updates later.

Fake Cisco = Bad News

2008-03-24T10:18:00.002Z

The blog has a bit of a tech bias recently but here is an example of politics and technology meeting up together. The story here is essentially that there are fake Cisco devices on UK Government networks potentially with malware. Apparently the source isn't neutral and have a long running issues with Cisco but it's interesting because of two things:

1. It shows how the scale of vital information infrastructure has massively grown in the past years. It also shows how a focus on just the software side of things will lead to problems...

2. It also worth noting that it is yet another example of people expressing concern over threats from the east. I think this is going to be an increasing theme over the years as the media clocks onto what it means when Asia becomes more autonomous.

A little bit of Etymology...

2008-03-20T23:47:00.002Z

Being a big geek I was pondering about the etymology of the word "lass" for no good reason other than I can. Having realised that it seemed to be only in 'Danelaw' areas that it was prevalent I did what every wannabe does - I used Google. Fortunately, Google confirmed my suspicion that it is a word of Scandinavian origin. This got me thinking more about the 'slang' words that are around. It seems that "owt" and "nowt" are related to each other and both are related to "naught" apparently. I find this kind of stuff interesting because it's both history and the present. What also interests me is how some words fall out of formal use and into common use. Aside from the predictable Latin and Greek roots of formal words I wonder if there's a root bias (in English) of words deemed part of an educated vocabulary versus those seen as uneducated...something to research perhaps.

Experiment

2008-03-18T14:34:00.001Z

Ok, if you're from this URL: http://notallmine.net/cam.asp please leave me a note. I'm carrying out a little experiment...actually I'm just vain and want to see if it worked :D

Anyway if you're not from http://notallmine.net/cam.asp - go there now! It will entertain you for hours on end...

McCain for Iraq?

2008-03-13T19:25:00.003Z

I've been doing a little bit of reading on the likely candidates in the American Presidential elections and their positions on Iraq. For the first time in a long time I actually think that it might be a Republican who has the most sensible approach. It seems that McCain holds a fairly realistic position that what Iraq needs is more troops and time. He also seems to be fairly realistic that time might not be forthcoming from the American public.

In contrast the Democrats both seem to be pushing for a timetable for withdrawal. Obama seems to be pushing a plan that I'm sure makes Rumsfeld chuckle as it's very similar to his low numbers approach at the start of the war. Clinton seems to be more measured in her statements of proposed withdrawal but the thrust is essentially the same - to get the US out of Iraq apart from the 'bare bones.

Both of these positions suffer from the same flaw in their analysis of their situation as they both work on the premise that the best way to save American lives is to scale back the operations there. This doesn't add up because one of the key reasons behind the problem in Iraq is the lack of troops in the initial invasion that allowed for a huge security vacum. The use of local militia is going some way to redressing the problem but obviously more American (and other) troops means more security in the long run. Withdrawing troops now would seriously hamper the progress made in security terms and allow insurgents to re-organise and cause more havok.

This is also another reason I cannot get behind the "Stop the War" campaign (it is ironic that many Stop the War lefties are also pro-Chavez who is distinctly pro-Farc). The idea that the best way to redress a badly executed invasion is to simply withdraw troops from Iraq is just wrong. A withdrawal would be an absolute disaster for Iraq and for the wider region with the notable exception of Iran. The opportunity to turn Iraq into a client state would obviously be too juicy a target to pass up.

The point of this? That actually when it comes to Iraq I'm pro-McCain.

There's gold in them there data...

2008-03-06T12:00:00.001Z

More geeknews as it seems that BT has joined forces with a company called Phorm. If you read the blurb you'd think that they'd created something to actually enhance your privacy but the reverse is true.

The system itself isn't overly clear and the available details are pretty technical at the moment. But the long and the short of it is that it uses copies of your browser requests and the returned content. Sites that are part of the OIX can use keywords to target their ads. There are few implications with this:

The tracking cookie is stored on their system not locally. The same goes for the profile that is built up over time. This may be ok if you trust corporate promises and large organisations abilities to look after secure data...
At present the trial customers are being allowed to "opt out". This is fine but it isn't exactly clear what happens if you opt out; your browsing may or may not be profiled anyway (you just wouldn't get the targetting).
This may or may not be illegal under RIPA as it counts as interception. Apparently BT will change their T&C's but it is only a matter of time before someone mounts a legal challenge.
This is not like a single (or range) of services from Google where you can just go somewhere else. This is every website you visit being recorded and examined for keywords to target advert regardless of whether that website wants to take part.

This is early days yet but read the Register article to find out more about the technical stuff behind the system and possible legalities.

A Survey

2008-03-04T17:21:00.001Z

A quick blog entry about a survey that I was sent today from something called the "Muslim Voice UK". I must have registered it some time ago and forgotten about it and I'm never one to shy away from giving my opinion (whether it has foundation or not) I took part.

I wish I hadn't now because the whole thing was massively biased and a really good example of writing a survey to get the results that you want. Take this question for example:

How angry are you about the Iraq war?

How angry am I? I'm not angry about the Iraq war - but the question has neatly excluded any other emotions and got people thinking along the right sort of lines. The survey continues on with a similar tone with questions about what makes you "angriest" about the Iraq war. Complex issues such as the causes of extremism have no option to say a "mix of factors". Apparently it's either all extremists, foriegn policy or social alientation. But not a mixture of those things!!

Anyway it just got me thinking about how the need for simplicity in modern media greatly enhances the apperance of monolithicity (a new word?) in the public perception. This can have a significant impact on the community itself as internal discourse between the groups, communities, sects and ultimately individuals occurs in a wider context that is often set by the percieved external discourse. Of course the 'communities' in that discourse are those as defined in the public perception - from the media.

I'm not denying the existence of 'super-communities' with a distinct group identity as the Muslim Ummah, Jewish Diaspora and Catholic "Mother Church" are three examples of group identity with influence on different spheres but still strong and very much extant.

The point I'm making is that the media and others influential in forming the public discourse are guilty of assuming that groups exist in reality as they are described. Of course even those within the groups are guilty of the same thing, usually to affirm or attempt to establish leadership roles. It isn't until people start to realise that the existence of a group identity is not the same as a universal shared value on all issues that there will be a better understanding and any hope of combatting modern issues.

Sadly I have no faith that such a change in perception will ever happen as it hasn't happened in all the millenia of human existence as far as I can tell. We are doomed to hearing that "Muslims are angry that..." and that "Westerners think that..." pretty much for all time.

But on the plus side it's not Monday. Yet...

Miracles!

2008-02-20T19:16:00.002Z

Not a political entry in the direct sense because today I had one of those moments where the sheer coolness of stuff became apparent. I say this today because I spent the past hour or so messing around with the various services that Google and others provide. All are free - once you're connected to the Internet.

First off I poked around mars for a bit. I looked at the topography different areas ranging from flat to pretty rough. I also zoomed in to get a closer look at a channel type thing and saw the difference between topographical (Radar?), IR and visual images. Now just read what I wrote - I saw all that stuff on mars.

Feeling a little homesick I started to see what I find on Google Maps to see what I could see at home. I found out that I could see a aerial photograph of the bench that I used to sit on for lunch at my old work. I then decided to look at New York and found out that you can also see 'street views' on certain roads allowing you to see how it looks. The idea that I can see how a street in New York looks whilst sitting on the other side of the Atlantic is mind boggling. What is equally mind boggling is that I can check out this 'des res' in Baghdad with its own swimming pool. I assume it's a swimming pool...

One more wonder of the communication age has to be Project Gutenberg which is effectively an enormous electronic library of all sorts of random books. A bit like the best second hand bookshop in the world. A keyword of interest is likely to bring out some gems - so far my favourite has to be a some medical poems.

This is all so staggering because it was just over half a century ago that computers did calculations far simpler than most mobile phones. International phone calls required someone to physically plug in the connection at several different locations and were often cut off. The alternatives were telegraph or post each with their own problems. Now we accept instant communication on a global scale as if it isn't anything that interesting and sometimes its nice to take the time to go 'cool'.

P.S.

It should be noted that the coolness bubble is popped when you realise what most people are using this vast communication network for. A search for 'Baghdad' on Google groups brought up a porn site review for the first result.

GMail Vulnerable...

2008-02-12T11:27:00.000Z

Geek news for people who merrily use GMail on wireless networks: It seems like you're vulnerable to being 'sidejacked'...The moral of the story? Web 2.0 applications aren't all that hot so be paranoid :)

An interesting story on the BBC about the way that Kosovo is going. It could be an extremely good and useful pro-European enclave so close to a far less predictable Serbia. With Russia getting more aggressive and Serbia still not exactly over enthusiastic (as a whole) on the E.U. it is entirely possible that we see Serbia fall more completely into an Eastern sphere of influence. A wealthy and developing Kosovo could be an example in much the same way that Western Germany was in the Cold War.

Catchup

2008-02-09T20:45:00.000Z

It's been a while since I last updated and a lot has been happened since then. I've been on strike with the WGA or something...

Super-Tuesday. Given that Nick has endorsed Obama I feel that I ought to get onto the bandwagon and endorse him as well. I know I've got one reader in the USA so come on - vote for Obama. As long as you can and haven't voted already...
The fashion for murdering people in Iraq seems not to be abating but now they're using poisoned cakes.
The USA and Iran are having talks which is good. Better than wars anyway...
Israel is still trying to starve out Gaza and the democratically elected government. Said elected government has failed to stop the regular fireworks going over to Israel. Neither side seems to be aware that collective punishment/random violence isn't working. Yay.
The world seems to be entering a more polycentric phase in the international arena with Russia making belligerant statements and going back to cold war tactics. No one seems very concerned with China at the moment but frankly they should be. It's aggresively expanding in Africa with 'soft power' which is insidious and harder to break than 'hard power'. Add this to a sophisticated and expanding military capacity and you have a long term problem. I read in an article that only 10% of China's economy is exporting which is a clear indication that it doesn't need American/European markets as much as is often assumed. The fact that our politicans are running off and basically cashing in is foolish to say the least - at least in the eyes of this realist...

YP Article

2008-01-21T10:08:00.000Z

I know that I said I'd have a more interesting post to put up but it has been busier than expected. Just a note on the article in the Yorkshire Post about the Islamic Society at Bradford. Where the article says that University and the Union are working to promote 'moderate' groups it would have perhaps been better to say that they are working towards allowing more students a voice. This voice is of course more moderate but the difference is critical as it is not the place of the University or Union to start deciding on what is and isn't mainstream or moderate.

University of Bradford Islamic Society

2008-01-14T16:15:00.000Z

By tomorrow there is likely to be an article in the Yorkshire Post that makes reference to the activities of Hizb ut-Tahrir at the University of Bradford Islamic Society. The University and the Union are likely to put out a bland press release smoothing things over. If the Islamic Society has anything to do with it there will also be a section saying how the society is non-Sectarian and has a diverse range of viewpoints. It may even deny any links to HT at all. Fortunately I know better however and can certainly prove strong ties between HT and the I-Soc and give specific examples of how they operated in the years 2003-06. There is still good reason to believe they continue to operate in this way.

In the unlikely event that anyone is reading this, and in the even more unlikely event they are interested, I will be updating an entry in the next week or so with this information. The scope of this will be limited to my knowledge; they is not an expose of HT workings or a Nawazesque refutation of their theology.

Sudan

2007-10-11T16:09:00.000+01:00

So it looks like there's more war politics going on in Sudan with the leaders of the Southern rebels walking out of the peace talks. With the national government facing some (marginal) pressure over the Darfur situation it looks like the Southern leaders feel like they can begin to flex their muscles a little bit. Part of it seems to be the problem of integrating the SPLM into the decision making process as they are apparently being isolated from the process. I'm not sure where I stand on this one as none of the parties in Sudan exactly command a lot of respect for their restraint and good sense.

On the subject of Sudan it was interesting to note how there was a distinct possibility that an attack on a town wasn't carried out by government forces but actually by rebels. This is interesting because it challenges the standard dichotomy that Government = Bad and Rebels = Good. There is no doubt that the Sudanese regime is horrific and the policy of using the Janjaweed is criminal, however, there is also little doubt that the rebel groups engage themselves in such actions themselves when it suits them. I just think it would help the world come to better solutions that were more nuanced if people stopped assigning groups of people labels like 'good' and 'evil'. In this way a realist perspective is actually more likely to bring a more nuanced and workable solution...interesting.

Free Burma?`

2007-10-06T00:55:00.000+01:00

One of the interesting things I've noticed with the coverage on the Burmese situation is the general trend of conflating the monks protests and the concept of a democratic uprising. The previous uprising in 1988 was by students who were demanding democracy. The current uprising was started by mid level monks who were worried about their economic situation and they have expressly stated that their marching is not about democracy.

In the general eagerness to see cracks in the military regime people have leaped to the conclusion that anything against the regime is automatically good. It is also clear that the general 'soft and fuzzy' perception of Buddhism in the west has played into a general feeling that the monks are 'OK' and whatever they want must also be 'OK'. Historically though Buddhist monks have sat over feudal systems in places like Tibet and when they openly disassociate themselves from democracy it does give pause for thought. Of course the 'democracy' cat is out of the bag and I suspect that any movement against the military using mass support is likely to be favour of democracy, my only caution here though, is that the Iranian Revolution was pro-democracy in the early days...

HT Down - not out

2007-10-03T14:51:00.000+01:00

I don't intend this to become a blog purely about HT but it does seem that the high profile losses of Ed et al has had a real impact on the membership in the UK. When it gets to the situation that leaders are asking members to 'get active or leave' then you know they're having problems. Of course it may just be a few individuals but I suspect that many members are pretty shocked at the moment because one of the 'heroes' of HT has left. I also suspect that many other people are getting ready to leave and if the party exerts pressure at this time they can save some face internally because it looks like they've cleaned house.

Don't expect this story to go away any time soon...

Ups and Downs

2007-09-24T12:53:00.000+01:00

Well it looks like the Egg (?) advert might be right afterall, because whilst in Burma something positive is potentially afoot, in Lebanon something bad is also potentially afoot. In Burma it looks like that we might be seeing the beginnings of the start of a change. The fact that there are thousands of people demonstrating can only be a good thing, but what is worrying is that track record both of Burma, and of the international community. The last time in Burma something like this happened the military simply used force to crush the uprising and whilst they've shown restraint so far there is no telling when that is going to break. Whilst it would be nice to see the regime collapse understanding that a massacre would not be tolerated, they only have to look to Andijan to see the limp reaction of the international community after the massacre there to feel secure. Of course, these are monks and not students, so any military reaction would provoke outrage internally. As far as I can see this scenario has X possible outcomes:

The Junta see the support for the demonstrations and being a process of limited political liberalisation followed by the inevitable deliberalisation once the movement is spent.
The Junta crack down on the movement and massacre lots of people. The international community slaps on a couple of sanctions and says the right thing.
The Junta crack down on the movement and massacre lots of people. This leads to civil war.

Option one is the least bloody in the short term but is no real solution and relies on the Junta being rational. Option two seems most likely given previous events of recent years especially where the state has the backing of a rival superpower. Option three seems fairly unlikely on the surface because there doesn't seem to be a militant group or force able to initiative an active civil war. Should it devolve into that though, it does present the opportunity to provide active support to a pro-western democracy movement and reduce the influence of China, providing benefit to the region as a whole.

As far as Lebanon goes it does seem rather depressing that the pro-Syrian elements are using a very bloody form of number balancing to help prevent the inevitable. If the 'Al-Qaeda' groups in Lebabon were Syria linked (of which I am not convinced) then it would seem that their efforts to provoke conservatism through destabilisation were only part of the plot. Now that the anti-Syrian bloc has lost enough politicians to murder they do not have the numbers to force qurom if the Pro-Syrian bloc boycott decision making. It's hard to see where this one is going but with the Pro-Syrian bloc including Hizbollah I wouldn't be expecting a quick win in Lebanon either...

P.S.

Thank you to the person who left a comment - it makes me happy! :D

Newsnight

2007-09-12T00:22:00.000+01:00

I had got all excited thinking that people had suddenly decided that they were interested in what I had to say. Sadly, it seems that they're just coming here to get to Majid Nawaz's blog which is fair enough. The link is here and I'll add his link to those on the side to make it easier for people to get to. More good stuff coming soon...

Past the Hizb ut-Tahrir Hysteria

2007-09-05T21:17:00.000+01:00

One thing I've noticed in the Hizb ut-Tahrir (HT) discussions, especially around those related to people who've left, are generally tainted with a distinct air of hysteria and reaction. This is dangerous because reactive and knee-jerk thinking on these issues results in poor decisions that could lead to unforseen consequences.

One of the most common of these reactions, even at a senior level, is to say 'Ban HT' as Germany has banned their activities. Yet is this really a sensible course of action? Well, if you subscribe to the idea that HT takes average (generally middle class/aspirational) students and indoctrinates them with a heterodox ideology that creates an us-and-them paradigm, then it doesn't seem hard to answer the question. When you couple this with the leaflet calling to kill Jews it doesn't seem hard to make a case for banning them.

Yet in reality it requires a more nuanced approach than this because there is complexity to things that is often missed. For example take a situation where you have a University Islamic Society that is being operated by HT. Normally, on its own, this is a bad thing that ought to be stopped, as this gives them an audience of fresh students year on year, who will flock to them because they are the Islamic Society unknowing of the affiliations. Yet what happens if there are jihadi sympathiser networks present on the same campus who are borderline illegal but would leap at the chance to take over an Islamic Society? In this scenario HT can be a useful buffer that prevent the jihadi sympathiser network for gaining a platform. In this scenario they're unwittingly preventing radicalisation. This is exactly what has happened in one Islamic Society as was clear in the case of Butt & Others where the iron grip of HT on the I-Soc kept them out. Of course once there is a more stable situation then efforts ought to be made to remove HT from their positions and more often than not it is the actions by students that prove more effective than official direction. Of course a set of regulations for faith facilities that ensure a degree of pluralism are one course of official action that is more useful than any direct banning measures.

When the threat of banning HT came out they simply went underground and stopped all 'public' activity and a clean out of all their literature. Some have suggested that this 'clean out' is being used to help remove the evidence of a shift in position on engaging in political systems other than their utopia. The ban also generated a large amount of sympathy for them amongst the orthodox sections of the community (and non-faith organisations) seen as the underdogs in an Islamophobic climate.

It seems to me that the sensible response to HT would consist of two parts. Firstly, support organic responses to their theo-politics and enable them to have their voice heard without any official body overtly supporting their particular views. Secondly, intelligent use of laws and regulations to reduce the opportunity for groups to gain strangleholds over civil structures such as societies and Mosques. Finally, intelligent use of HT to help provide a 'buffer' where they can restrict the jihadi sympathiser networks, where no other option is available.

Now if only somebody would listen...:)

A little bit of Europe...

2007-09-02T13:36:00.000+01:00

In a story that is likely to be missed in the UK it looks like that Sarkozy is going to start liberalising the market and will focus on hitting the 'guilds'. This is exactly the sort of liberalisation that makes sense because it generates real competition in an area that can support it.

On a similar note to competition it looks like that the EU bashers are going to have a field day because according to the Figaro the EU is looking at the tax breaks given to the Catholic Church. Apparently they might be in breach of competition rules as the tax breaks could be a form of state aid. Not sure where I stand on this one...

Organic Anti-Terrorism

2007-09-01T14:49:00.001+01:00

In recent times there has been a slight maturing of the debate over radicalisation and what leads people to become bombers on public transport. Looking at the horrific events in the UK (and those that almost were) it has become clear that there is no 'single' cause for extremism but rather a combination of causes. Much like the existence of fire there needs to be a combination of factors for terrorism to take place. Obviously you need people who are susceptible to factors¹ to make them terrorists and the 'profile' of terrorists and what makes them open to terrorism has been done to death. You need causes or some event to make people angry at injustices and the international arena is filled with events that can be easily 'spun' in either direction. You also need the ideas that divide the world into 'us vs them' and provide the justification for anger at perceived injustice to be directed into action.

Tackling the ideas is perhaps the hardest part of all because any counter idea requires real legitimacy to capture the middle ground and potentially disenfranchised. Any ideas openly bankrolled by the government (any government) is automatically suspect and any groups in the same vein are ridiculed by the people who it is most urgent to reach out to. In this way an organic counter is required to come from the community itself. Within the Muslim community and the Islamic discourses this is happening more and more. The Orthodox scholars are slowly becoming more pro-active shifting their attention away from the minutiae of religious matters into wider fields such as identity and functioning in society.

A fine example of this is Jimas who recently held a conference about the environment. One of the key features of the conference was about making a positive contribution to society and the place of Muslims in a minority situation. All of this seems fairly mainstream but in reality to see mainstream scholars engaging with 'politics' is excellent as it does mark a shift away from the 'no politics in the mosque' that left a vacuum for radicals to fill.

Another example of organic discussion within the Islamic tradition is the departure of Majid Nawaz from Hizb ut-Tahrir. Now I'm not linking HT with violent terrorism because that is an incorrect analysis but they are nevertheless undesirable in terms of their radical ideology. This is important because Majid was a member of the UK national leadership and well respected after his imprisonment in Egypt for his HT membership. His extensive article can be read here which is lengthy but a fine example of the debate going on internally within the community.

¹An interesting link can be read here which is the US State Departments 'Journal' on the mindset of terrorism.

Back from the break...

2007-08-30T10:20:00.000+01:00

Well one month since I left the exciting world of student politics and one month since my last blog post. Not an awful lot of note has happened to me recently apart from the sad realisation that there are an awful lot more graduates than jobs in London. I may have spent the last year managing information flow, writing speeches and running an organisation with turnover of around half a million pounds but it seems the exciting world of datacapture beckons.

It would be easy to get dispirited but instead I'm going to think positive and try get back into politics ASAP. I think the whole PR business looks most fun because that is the work I enjoyed the most and was best at. Of course I am now a victim of my own sucess because its hard to provide an example of a crisis I helped to manage because...I had none of note because I nipped them all in the bud.

On a lighter note two men survived in a collapsed mine according to the BBC website. What caugt my attention was this little gem from one of the men...

His brother replied: "I laughed too. I said my wife could find a rich man
in Shenyang.

"But then I thought, I have two children and my wife is ugly, so it
would be hard for her to remarry.

Now I'm far from the most romantic husband but that really is a little tragic. Not as tragic as relaying to the international media though. Looks like he'll be surviving on the sofa for a while yet...

Boys toys...

2007-07-26T09:50:00.000+01:00

I'm not really one of those weird people that gets inappropriately excited over military equipment because it is after all designed to kill and maim people in the main. A Yahoo report on the new American UAV is pretty interesting though because it indicates a couple of things. Firstly, it indicates that the fetish around air power isn't going anytime soon despite the fact that the current use of air power in Iraq has in many senses been counter productive, losing many hearts and minds to inappropriate use of weapons causing civilian deaths. Secondly, in the longer term it fits in with more automation in warfare, which is a good thing because it means less people in harms way. There is a little nagging doubt but whether that is due to an irrational fear of 'robots' that most people share or whether there is something more substantial I'm not sure.

I also removed a link to the right because it seems that RHUL has a HT apologist amongst their academic staff and the blog contained little of substance. In case anyone thinks I'm censoring the address is here.

All is not well...

2007-07-20T21:01:00.000+01:00

It seems that all is not well on the good ship Musharraf as for the first time he has seen his direct command reversed by a civilian institution. In a military country that is pretty extraordinary itself and any other time would severely weaken him but sadly the Lal Masjid setup has made sure he's secure as a warrior against the radicals. Of course he's going to have to do a lot more 'warrioring' having provoked the monster he helped fund and create...

You'd have hoped that the experience of the army in the NW Frontier would be enough to demonstrate to them that force alone cannot control an area and neither can Musharraf's lame attempts at combating the ideology of the extremists (i.e. enlightened moderation). The only way he can win that war is by buying back the periphery of the radical groups he used to support, by allowing opening up freedom of speech and discussion and allowing opposing political discourses space to form and breathe. Using the considerable wealth of the army to generate 'soft power' in the area would help enforce Pakistani hegemony over the tribal areas and reduce the total supremacy of the taliban there. Once that is done then he should engage in 'hard power' exercises in targeting the 'hard core' of extremist activists. Although not likely to destroy the larger groups it would make it clear that victory to them is impossible via military means. Once a credible group abandons military means then it'd be preferable to facilitate their hegemony in the opposition movement as discreetly as possible.

Sadly I suspect we'll just see more troops movements, a sole reliance on firepower to defeat and unconventional enemy and a continued level of censorship and suppression that prevents any real discourse and civil space. Pants.

Palestine(s)

2007-06-14T09:49:00.000+01:00

According to the BBC and Al-Jazeera Hamas is now looking increasingly like it controls most of Gaza. Of course it stands that the news outlets may not have entirely accurate information and may be looking for a more interesting headline than Hamas 'gains' but even so, if we translate the recent events into the future, we can see that Hamas may have substantially more control in Gaza than they had before. Both news outlets have also raised the possibility that a split between Hamas and Fatah could lead to a division between Hamas Gaza and Fatah West Bank. If this happens what would be the implications? In no particular order...

Israeli hawks point to the military withdrawal and claim that this allowed Hamas space to carry out a coup d'etat. Every politician that mentions withdrawal from other areas will have this thrust in their face for years to come.
The Israeli government will face increased pressure to carry out a radical intervention in the Gaza strip which would be costly and probably futile in the long run.
There will be a competition amongst the politicians for the legitimate leadership of Palestinians. This is likely to lead to a really severe rift with implications for the diaspora throughout the region.
In the face of a sustained split regional governments will have to consider the prospect of dealing with a Hamas with a (relatively) secure power base. For Egypt the prospect of an armed offshoot of the Ihkwan is probably not very appetising. For others like Iran this could amount to a real gift.
Fatah will be forced into re-examining its military capacity. By all accounts Hamas fighters seem better trained if not better armed. This is probably a result of discrete shipments from the USA to Fatah run security forces without any training. Their failure on this level may cause heads to re-evaluate their work with Fatah as a buffer against 'radicals'. Given the lack of appetising alternatives it is possible that they receive greater support in the West Bank via training (possibly somewhere like Syria - assuming it isn't caught in a USA-Iran love triangle) or that the Israeli military simply increase their pressure on Hamas in the West Bank.
Israel will be forced to either engage in real-politic with Hamas officials or apply pressure such that Hamas feels like it has to re-instate Fatah links. This has not worked so far but that doesn't them from trying...
Any resultant security vacum either from lack of Hamas capability or because of external pressures would benefit the truly radical groups (such as Jash al-Islam) that seem to be identifying themselves in Gaza. An increased presence of these groups would seriously destabilise the area and make it significantly less safe which is something that benefits no one at all least of all the Palestinians and Israelis in the area.

The next few days promise to set the nature of the issues in the region for a long time to come...

UK Nuclear Links

2007-06-10T22:50:00.000+01:00

An interesting story appeared on the Guardian website today about a UK company being part of a chain to sell Uranium to Iran. If this is true then it means Iran has been attempting to obtain Uranium in a way that would tend to indicate it was for non-civil uses. What is more interesting is the claim by investigators that there is proof from this that Al-Qaeda are trying to develop nuclear capability. Whilst it wouldn't be suprising if this was the case there are two things that do make it surprising. The first was that it was linked with an investigation into Iran as AQ is opposed to Iran by default; they believe Iranian Shia are non-Muslims.

The second is that if AQ were trying to develop a nuclear capacity then it would make far more sense for them to use a 'dirty' bomb rather than a nuclear warhead. Dirty bombs using industrial radioactive waste would be easier to assemble and transport than a warhead or even weapons grade uranium. I also find it hard to believe that Iran would want a nuclear armed AQ because they would be uncontrollable and have substantial leverage over Iran and not vice-versa.

Once again we're faced with information being leaked out about an enemy in an effort to link them with the other enemy. Given the debacle in Iraq and Saddams 'links' with AQ this sort of thing can only be treated with extreme scepticism. Perhaps far more alarmingly it is possible to hear war drums behind this even if they are faint.

Syria and Islamists

2007-05-25T20:09:00.000+01:00

Why is it that Syria is continually being linked with violent Islamist groups in the region? The USA is constantly referencing Syria as supporting the insurgents in Iraq but this really doesn't hold a lot of water. First of all people on the border with Iraq are clear that Syria was allowing fighters across the border until the collapse of the regime. This is entirely feasible given that the two regimes were both baathist regimes. The whole relationship in Syria between the regime and Islam is discussed in detail here, but the point is, that Syria is one of the few regimes to have had a measure of success in limiting violent Islamists. Of course this is down in part to its ruthless secret police although they are now opening space for a tightly controlled Islamism.

Now Lebanon has started crying wolf by saying that Syria is linked to Fatah al-Islam its 'new' enemy. They are a violent Islamist group that has had other groups distancing themselves from it which is saying something. Given the context of Syria's battle to control Islamism and stop violent Islamism it would seem bizarre for it to be fostering a proxy in Lebanon. There are already pro-Syrian elements in Lebanon that have used the far more effective targeted killings. It also doesn't ring true because this whole crisis started when the army raided the camp after a bank raid. Bank robbery is a classic way for small groups to fund themselves when they lack a large support base or rich backers. Would a Syrian proxy group need to find funds from a bank raid or defend bank robbers? Why would Syria wait until the Security Council is making a decision on a tribunal? None of this really points to any serious kind of connection between Baathist Syria and Islamist Fatah al-Islam.

Purpose vs Bureaucracy

2007-05-17T19:46:00.000+01:00

I was present at a pretty interesting discussion today over what shape the future NUS should take. There seems to be a consensus over the fact that at the moment the structures aren't working as well as they should be. The precise reason why they're not working is something no one agrees on. For some it seems to be because the NUS has the audacity to talk about political issues outside of fees & halls. For others it seems to be because the overwhelming strength of some factional alliances and for yet others, it seems to be the existence of factions at all, that causes problems in NUS.

But for me one of the notable points was a very subtle distinction to be made between representation and paternalism. There was a definite theme that NUS should be 'looking after' the interests of students on national issues. As a free standing idea this seems pretty harmless but of course the implications of this in structural terms is that a lot of the messy and slow democratic structures are the ones facing the chop. After all, they bog the NUS down in petty debates, factionalisation and prevent policy from being reactive enough. Another knock on from this idea is that elected officers spend their time looking after the interests of students and therefore the Presidents ought to go to conference automatically.

There is an argument for greater speed and efficiency in NUS and this is probably more of an argument for an NEC with teeth. Of course an NEC with teeth needs to be large enough to accept the political diversity of five million or so students which doesn't fit in well with the idea of also cutting the NEC to make it more efficient.

In short there were two main flaws in the responses to the consultation I saw today. The first and foremost was to treat the NUS as a private organisation that can be made 'better' by streamlining. The second is the failure to resist the pull of 'structure knows best' and weakening the ties between student and NUS rather than making the NUS more policy driven.